Thursday, December 9, 2010

Mathematically Possible for Vikings to Make the Playoffs =)

Now that the Vikings have strung together a couple of wins to be at 5-7 going in to week 14 against the NY Giants, I asked myself, "can the Vikings still make the playoffs?".

My calculations are as follows. (Disclaimer: I really don't know if I figured this out right)

The Minnesota Vikings will go to the playoffs if:

1. The Vikings win the rest of their games, finishing at 9-7.
2. The Bears lose to the Packers, Eagles, Patriots and Jets
3. Eagles sweep Giants
4. Packers beat the Giants
5. Eagles beat the Cowboys
6. Falcons beat the Saints
7. Bucs lose to the Falcons, Saints, Ravens, and Redskins
8. The three teams that didn't win the NFC West are all 8-8 or worse

The Division winners would be the Eagles, Packers, Falcons, and the West winner.
Saints would get the first wildcard.
The Vikings would get the second wildcard with the conference record tie-breaker.

There. Mathematically, it is possible for the Vikings to earn a wildcard. Theoretically, we would need to have... around 25 games swing our way. Now, I would like to analyze the possibility of 1-8 happening.

1. We have to assume this will happen or the rest is irrelevant. Sure, we will go 9-7 on the season.

2. This is possible. All of the teams the Bears will be playing are very strong. I suspect the Bears will lose at least one. However, that is not good enough as one Bears win would make the wildcard impossible.

3. Very possible. The Giants lost in NY.

4. The Packers will be coming off a game against the Lions, a very talented team with a terrible record. This is an iffy premise. Depends if the Giants are rallying to keep up with the Eagles.

5. Likely, but division rivalries always are indeterminate.

6. Falcons are a better team, but the Saint have been improving.

7. See #2.

8. The NFC West is schizophrenic and this is highly possible.

Well... what do you think? This took me a very very long time to figure out, and I am not truly sure if it is right, but I would enjoy your opinions anyway! Just remember, we wouldn't be Vikings if we weren't willing to fight our way to the top. This year, we are just asking others for a little boost.


  1. You are right....but the Bears self destructing like that is not probable.

  2. 7. Bucs lose to the Falcons, Saints, Ravens, and Redskins

    The Bucs play the Redskins, Lions, Seahawks, and Saints. I'm not sure where you got the teams you listed from. With their win over the Redskins Sunday, I think it's all over mathematically. Btw, ESPN put out a playoff machine that could have saved you a ton of time. lol

  3. I did find a scenario using the playoff machine:

    1. Vikes win out
    2. Packers lose out
    3. Bucs lose 2 of last 3 games
    4. Giants lose to Eagles and Redskins

    Possibility of all happening = 2.4343%, repeating of course...